Planning Accuracy
Planning Accuracy measures how closely a team’s actual completed work matches what they committed to during sprint or iteration planning. It reflects the team’s ability to make reliable delivery forecasts and plan based on capacity.
Calculation
Committed work is defined as the set of tickets, stories, or issues explicitly planned at the start of the sprint or iteration. Only work completed within the timebox and part of the original commitment should be counted.
This metric is calculated by dividing the amount of committed work completed by the total amount of committed work:
planning accuracy = completed committed work ÷ total committed work × 100
Goals
Planning Accuracy helps teams evaluate the predictability of their sprint planning process. It answers questions like:
- Are we delivering what we said we would at the start of the sprint?
- Are unexpected blockers or changes disrupting our ability to execute?
- Is our sprint planning aligned with real capacity?
This metric improves trust in planning and enables better coordination with stakeholders.
Variations
This metric is sometimes called Commitment Accuracy, Sprint Planning Reliability, or Commit-to-Complete Ratio. It may be reported as a percentage or tracked as a ratio over time.
Common segmentations include:
- By team, to compare planning consistency across groups
- By work type, to evaluate how reliably teams estimate bugs vs. features
- By estimation unit, such as story points versus ticket count
Some teams track planned accuracy trendlines over multiple sprints or map planned vs. delivered scope in burndown charts.
Limitations
Planning Accuracy measures completion of planned work, but not the value of that work. A sprint that delivers 100 percent of a low-priority backlog isn’t necessarily more successful than one that adapts to shifting needs.
It also doesn’t capture scope changes. If new work is added or original scope is redefined mid-sprint, accuracy can become misleading unless scope is rebaselined.
To better understand planning health, use this metric with:
| Complementary Metric | Why It’s Relevant |
|---|---|
| Sprint Scope Creep | Identifies whether mid-sprint changes are disrupting original commitments. |
| Sprint Rollover Rate | Shows how much planned work consistently rolls over between sprints. |
| Velocity | Provides a baseline for how much work teams can complete per sprint or cycle. |
Optimization
Improving Planning Accuracy requires teams to align sprint commitments more closely with actual throughput and reduce friction that disrupts execution.
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Use historical velocity to guide commitments. Plan based on what the team has delivered recently, not aspirational capacity. Apply buffers for unexpected work.
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Ensure stories meet the Definition of Ready. Refine tickets before the sprint begins to avoid rework or delays due to missing information.
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Review scope changes in retrospectives. Track work that was added, dropped, or delayed and discuss why the original plan diverged.
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Separate interrupts from planned work. If support or bug work often derails sprints, reserve capacity explicitly or manage it in a separate swimlane.
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Visualize planning vs. delivery. Use sprint tracking tools and dashboards to show plan vs. actual scope and make trends visible across time.
High Planning Accuracy doesn’t mean inflexibility. It means making clear, realistic commitments, and learning when and why plans change so future delivery becomes more reliable.
